On Tuesday, October 14, a US Senate vote to advance a stopgap funding bill failed for an eighth time.
The failed vote means that the SEC will continue operating with a skeleton staff, effectively freezing XRP-spot ETF launches. Crucially, a prolonged US government shutdown would delay institutional demand for XRP, potentially capping gains.
Greg Xethalis, General Counsel at Multicoin Capital, provided some clarity on what’s next for crypto-spot ETFs pending approval. He stated:
“Ignore the October 19b-4 deadlines. They are NOT launch deadlines but SRO Rule deadlines and all those rule proposals were cleared by the Generic Listing Standards (for crypto assets that don’t yet qualify for GLS, their 19b4s are still pending).”
What does this mean for XRP traders?
In a nutshell, the seven XRP-spot ETFs could potentially launch after the US government reopens, giving events on Capitol Hill a greater influence on price trends.
Institutional Demand and Regulatory Momentum
Crypto experts expect robust institutional demand amid growing appetite for regulated crypto derivatives.
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented:
“Rapid adoption of XRP and Solana futures shows increased institutional appetite for regulated altcoin derivatives. Bitcoin just had its usual advantage of a head start. Soon the Bitcoin/Ethereum duopoly in spot ETFs will end, hopefully before a bear market starts”
Morgan shared the details of a CME Group Report about XRP futures, adding:
“XRP futures set a new large open interest holders record. 476k contracts equating to $23.7 billion in notional value since May 2025. Not even 6 months. Open interest last month of $1.4 billion.”
Looking beyond spot ETFs, the government shutdown could also slow the Market Structure Bill’s progress. The US House of Representatives passed the bill to the Senate on July 17, triggering a 14.69% XRP rally. Regulatory clarity, including greater CFTC oversight, could drive adoption, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.
As things stand, XRP remains in limbo, with spot ETF launches and crypto-friendly legislation dependent on the Senate passing a stopgap funding bill.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.4?
XRP slid 3.92% on Tuesday, October 14, reversing the previous day’s 2.99% gain to close at $2.5053. The token snapped a three-day winning streak and underperformed the broader market, which dropped 2.33%. The pullback left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.4, $2.0, and $1.9.
- Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6327 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8329.
- Resistance levels: $2.7 and $3.0.
Catalysts & Scenarios
In the coming sessions, several key drivers could dictate near-term price trends:
- US-China trade developments.
- The US government shutdown.
- XRP ETF headlines (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Blue-chip companies target XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.4
- BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
- US Senate impasse continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
- Lawmakers vote against crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT keeps its market share in the global remittance market, capping Ripple’s market access.
These bearish scenarios could drag XRP back toward $2.4. A break below $2.4 would expose $2.0.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3
- US-China trade friction cools.
- Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies acquire XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
- Ripple gains traction in eroding SWIFT’s dominance in the global remittance business.
These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to $2.7 and bring the key psychological resistance at the $3 level.