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The Dow Jones Industrial Average offers too small a sample size for many to be an effective gauge of how well the stock market is doing on any given day. But, of course, we have the S&P 500 for that, which is more widely followed and invested in by investors. Still, having only 30 stocks in a basket does make the Dow an interesting and reasonably well-diversified portfolio that might act as a model for new investors looking to get started in the stock-picking game.
Of course, the Dow Jones basket can be fun to keep tabs on as a beginner. And, of course, the index has a very rich history on Wall Street alongside a price that’s continued to swell, serving as an example of the wonders of compounding over extremely long periods of time. In any case, if you’re a fan of blue chips and are interested in when the legendary index adds a new holding or gives one the boot, you might be compelled to see what’s winning or losing in any given year.
Though the year isn’t over yet, this piece will explore a few Dow stocks that have had their way with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO) and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (NYSEARCA:VTI), which are both up close to 15%, so far this year. But does their recent hot streak warrant chasing them into the new year? Let’s find out.
Caterpillar
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is a heavy-duty construction machinery company that I found to be one of the most surprising market beaters for 2025. Shares of Caterpillar are up over 56% year to date, and despite recent turbulence, the rally off Liberation Day lows still seems intact. Wall Street analysts have high hopes for the $263 billion industrial blue chip going into 2026, especially after the firm revealed some pretty upbeat targets during its latest Investor Day meeting.
Could Caterpillar really be in for a renaissance of growth over the next four years? Perhaps. A sales growth rate of around 6% seems easily doable, especially as buyers better appreciate its digital technologies.
That said, the business of construction, mining, and all the sort can be quite cyclical. And with that, investors had better have a tolerance for pain should the environment shift drastically. If a recession is encountered at some point down the road, the rosy sales guidance may be too high a bar that’s been set. Either way, I’m cautiously optimistic about the name while it’s trading for more than 23 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E). I could be wrong, but I think much of the optimism and strength might already be priced in here.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is up over 36% year to date, but more impressively, it’s up more than 142% in the last two years. The iconic investment bank really is firing on all cylinders, thanks to tons of dealmaking momentum, which is expected to carry into the new year, as well as continued resilience in the economy. If M&A looks to kick things up a few notches, the good days for Goldman Sachs might be about to get even better. In any case, the stock looks way too cheap at less than 15 times forward P/E, with a nice and growing 2.0%-yielding dividend.
While I’m no fan of chasing rallies, it’s hard to make a case against Goldman Sachs when it’s going for so cheap, with such macro tailwinds at its back. In the new year, I would not be surprised if shares top the S&P 500 once again. It’s a winner that has all the tools to continue winning big.