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TODAY’S STARTING POINT
President Trump retook the White House in part by blasting the US economy as weak. But just months into his second term, several different metrics show it getting worse.
Hiring has slowed. Unemployment has ticked up. Trump’s tariffs appear to be reigniting inflation. And most voters tell pollsters that the economy has deteriorated since he took office. Consider these numbers and charts:
That’s how many fewer jobs the Bureau of Labor Statistics now estimates the economy added between last March and this one. The revisions to the bureau’s earlier figures are the latest sign that job growth has been weaker for longer than we knew — starting before Trump became president.
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Yet as the above chart shows, the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically in recent months as the government has repeatedly revised down its initial estimates for how many jobs the economy created. Last month, those revisions prompted President Trump to fire the head of the bureau, whom he accused — without evidence — of manipulating data to make his administration look bad. In fact, the revisions are part of a standard process the bureau uses to make its estimates more accurate.
4.3 percent
That’s the unemployment rate, the share of Americans who don’t have a job but want one. As unemployment goes, it’s still relatively low; during the depths of the COVID pandemic, the jobless rate hit nearly 15 percent. Still, the number has drifted upwards in recent months and is now the highest it’s been in nearly four years.
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There are other warning signs. As my colleague Katie Johnston reported last month, workers of color are often the first hit by a souring economy. The unemployment rate for Black and Hispanic Americans was around 7 percent this summer, higher than the national average. That could signal broader trouble ahead as a softening labor market makes it harder for those out of work to find jobs. (The downturn has employers turning to AI apps to winnow resumes and even conduct interviews, while job applicants use the technology to write resumes and cover letters.)
3.1 percent
That’s the speed at which prices across the US, collectively called inflation, rose over the year that ended in July (excluding food and energy costs, which tend to be more volatile). Inflation has come down a lot since hitting a four-decade high in 2022, but remains higher than the 2 percent benchmark preferred by the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank. We’re set to get the latest inflation figures tomorrow.
Inflation may have slowed, but that just means prices aren’t going up as quickly; in many cases, what you’re paying at checkout remains higher than it was earlier this year. The cost of gas and eggs has fallen, but retail beef and other grocery prices — which factor into the core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation gauge, the Fed’s preferred measure — are at record highs. Inflation has eaten into paychecks — a Census Bureau report yesterday found that most household incomes were flat last year — and caused many Americans to spend less.
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Trump’s tariffs also seem to be worsening inflation. Tariffs increase what companies pay to import foreign goods and are in theory one-time price hikes. But their effect depends on how much they go up, on which goods, and how much of that added cost companies pass along to customers. It’s also unclear how long the tariffs will stay in effect, because judges have ruled most of them unlawful. Trump has appealed to the Supreme Court, which yesterday agreed to hear arguments in November.
~4.3 percent
That’s the approximate short-term interest rate in the US, which the Fed sets and is its main tool to keep the economy stable. Lower rates make it easier for consumers and companies to borrow money, goosing the economy during downturns. When the Fed wants to disincentivize spending and check inflation, as it did when prices spiked during the pandemic, it raises rates.
Stubborn inflation has made Fed officials leery of cutting rates too quickly. But with the job market weakening, they’re widely expected to do so for the first time since December when they meet next week — something Trump has agitated for even as he argues that the economy is strong.
Record stocks
One confounding variable: stock prices have remained relatively stable despite clear signs of a weakening economy and Trump’s efforts to undermine the Fed’s independence. (A federal judge blocked one of those efforts yesterday, ruling that Lisa Cook, the Fed governor Trump is making an unprecedented bid to fire, can remain in her job while she fights in court to keep it.)
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The stock boom has boosted many Americans’ retirement accounts, but it’s largely being driven by investor optimism in giant tech stocks over artificial intelligence. So while the markets may be a bright spot now, it’s impossible to know how long they’ll stay that way.
Thanks to my colleague Larry Edelman, whose recent column I borrowed the above charts from. RSVP here to join him and business journalist Dana Gerber on Sept. 30 for a conversation about Trump’s pressure campaign on higher education.
🧩 1 Across: Truth or ____ | ☁️ 68° Cool and overcast
POINTS OF INTEREST
Cutting red tape: Governor Maura Healey proposed reforms to Massachusetts’ environmental permitting rules to let developers build housing more quickly.
Transgender rights: A judge ruled that Boston Children’s Hospital doesn’t have to give the Justice Department information about its gender-affirming care policies. In a separate case, a court ordered Vermont to let a Christian academy compete in state sports more than two years after it refused to play a team with a trans athlete.
Voting on voting: Secretary of State Bill Galvin is trying to put a measure that would allow same-day voter registration on the Massachusetts ballot next year. But he hasn’t said whether he’ll be running for re-election alongside it.
Rematch: Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive, formally announced a challenge to Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee, who narrowly beat her four years ago, in next year’s Democratic primary.
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Flag fight: West Boylston’s former town administrator is suing after the town’s select board fired him over a dispute over a Trump campaign flag inside police headquarters.
The Duke appears: Former Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis, 91, made a rare public appearance at a book event in Brookline last night. See photos. (7News)
RFK Jr.: Trump’s health secretary released a report on children’s health that repeated some of Kennedy’s fringe and false beliefs about health and medicine.
Green light: The Supreme Court will temporarily let the Trump administration withhold $4 billion in congressionally authorized foreign aid while the court decides next steps. (NBC)
Israel-Hamas war: Israeli warplanes bombed Hamas leaders in Qatar as they met to discuss a US proposal to end the fighting in Gaza. The attack risked derailing ceasefire negotiations and angered Qatar, which has mediated the talks. (AP)
Tense: Poland, a NATO member that borders Ukraine, said it shot down Russian drones that entered its airspace, calling the incursion “an act of aggression.” (NYT 🎁)
BESIDE THE POINT
🗓️ Fall happenings: From “Our Town” at Lyric Stage Boston to Bobcat Goldthwait at the Comedy Studio in Cambridge, Globe writers picked 101 fun things to do in the area this season.
📱 Bright and shiny: Apple announced new (very skinny) iPhones, holding down prices despite tariffs that will increase company costs. (Reuters)
❤️ Love Letters: He’s good in bed but a terrible person. It’s a conundrum.
💸 Solidarity: Speaking of economics, writer Katie Hawkins-Gaar broke down how hard it is to make ends meet with a newsletter day job. (My Sweet Dumb Brain)
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🏫 What’s in a name? Porkers. Presidents. Clippers. Whether marking landmarks, honoring history, or injecting whimsy, each Massachusetts high school sports team nickname has a backstory.
✈️ Amazing race: For its 25th anniversary, JetBlue challenged its passengers to fly to 25 different airports in six months. It spawned an entire online community.
🏈 Oozing success: At New Hampshire’s Mud Bowl, held annually in North Conway, people play mucky touch football for charity.
Thanks for reading Starting Point.
This newsletter was edited by Victoria McGrane and Heather Ciras.
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Ian Prasad Philbrick can be reached at ian.philbrick@globe.com.