Tesla (TSLA) does something unsual ahead of Q4 delivery results

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In a surprising move, Tesla (TSLA) has publicly released a delivery consensus for the fourth quarter of 2025 via a press release on its investor relations website. This is a significant departure from the automaker’s standard operating procedure, suggesting it is trying to get ahead of what looks to be a disappointing quarter.

By the end of the week, Tesla is expected to report its Q4 delivery results and confirm that its electric vehicle deliveries are down for a second full year in a row.

It’s not a great look for a company that is all about growth

For years, Tesla has compiled a consensus of sell-side analysts’ estimates, but it typically only shares this data privately through an email from its Investor Relations team to a select list of analysts and major investors.

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Today, however, the company decided to publish the data for the world to see:

	Q3-2025	Q4-2025	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Model 3/Y deliveries	481,166	388,002	1,509,460	1,566,724	1,703,578	1,872,812	2,327,902
All other models	15,933	34,848	131,292	183,519	306,880	477,639	691,999
Total deliveries	497,099	422,850	1,640,752	1,750,243	2,010,459	2,350,451	3,019,902
Median		420,399	1,638,301	1,743,856	1,900,000	2,111,033	2,933,198
Standard deviation		21,959	21,959	107,729	297,891	641,401	937,686
Number of estimates provided		20	20	20	17	16	11
Energy Storage Deployments (GWh)	12.5	13.4	45.9	63.9	87.7	112.5	141.8
Median		13.2	45.7	62.1	86.6	115.7	140.3
Standard deviation		1.3	1.3	7.0	13.2	18.9	26.2
Number of estimates provided		16	16	15	13	12	8

The consensus, which Tesla says is “company-compiled,” pegs the median expectation for Q4 2025 deliveries at 420,399 vehicles (with a mean of 422,850).

This number is notably lower than the broader public consensus figures circulating on Wall Street. For instance, Bloomberg’s consensus has been hovering closer to 440,000 units.

By releasing its own, lower consensus publicly, Tesla appears to be attempting to lower expectations ahead of the official delivery and production report, which is expected in the first few days of January. If the “whisper numbers” on the street are 440k and Tesla delivers 425k, the stock would typically take a hit. By anchoring expectations to ~420k now, a 425k result might be spun as a “beat.”

A Second Year of Decline for Tesla’s EVs

The implications of this consensus are stark. If Tesla hits the median target of ~420,000 deliveries for Q4, it would bring the full year 2025 total to approximately 1.64 million vehicles.

This would confirm that 2025 is the second consecutive year of declining deliveries for the electric automaker.

• 2023: 1.81 million (peak)
• 2024: 1.79 million
• 2025 (Est): 1.64 million

A drop to 1.64 million represents a roughly 8% decline year-over-year, a significant acceleration in the wrong direction compared to the slight 1% dip seen in 2024.

The fourth quarter was expected to be difficult following the expiration of the U.S. federal tax credit at the end of Q3, which likely pulled forward a significant amount of demand into the third quarter (where Tesla delivered a record ~497k vehicles). However, a sequential drop of over 75,000 units is steeper than many bulls had hoped.

Electrek’s Take

This is a very defensive move from Tesla.

I’ve been covering Tesla for a long time, and this is unusual for the company, to say the least.

It’s good for them to lower expectations, but no matter what, 420,000 vehicles would be terrible for Tesla and confirm a clear trend of decline in EV sales amid a global surge (EVs are expected to be up about 25% year-over-year globally in 2025).

It’s becoming impossible to ignore the trend here. For a company that was priced for 50% annual growth for years, posting back-to-back years of declining volumes is a massive reality check.

I don’t know where Tesla will land in Q4, but I do know that these estimates make no sense. 35,000 “other vehicles”? I know that SpaceX has been buying a lot of Cybertrucks in Q4, but not 10,000 Cybertrucks.

Or do they expect Model S and Model X sales to double magically? I’m confused.

If Tesla delivers more than 25,000 “other models” in Q4 2025, I’d be shocked, and by shocked, I mean suspicious. And that’s 30% below the average estimate? Again, I’m confused.