Investing.com — Morgan Stanley says Tesla’s fourth-quarter results could produce an unusually wide range of outcomes, with the stock reaction likely driven by updates on robotaxis, Full Self-Driving and the company’s emerging AI hardware programs.
Analyst Andrew Percoco writes that “the stock reaction will depend on the incrementality of updates around scaling robotaxi/Cybercab, launching Unsupervised FSD, Optimus Gen 3, and AI5.”
On financials, Morgan Stanley sits below consensus on several key metrics. The bank forecasts 2026 deliveries of 1.6 million units, which is “9% below consensus,” and sees auto gross margin at 14.2%, compared with 15% expected by the street.
Percoco adds that Tesla could “burn $1.5bn of FCF in 2026,” contrasting with consensus of positive $3.1 billion, citing a “significant step-up in capex in 2026.”
Beyond the numbers, Morgan Stanley highlights five catalysts that could move the stock:
1. Robotaxi rollout. The timing for a public launch “with no safety monitor in Texas” is viewed as a “critical near-term catalyst,” with updates on miles driven in Austin likely to be closely watched.
2. Path to Unsupervised FSD. Percoco notes Tesla’s FSD miles have surged to “~7.4bn cumulative miles,” and says an enhanced “eyes off” experience could begin rolling out in phases through 2026.
3. AI5 chip progress. Investors will look for detail on Tesla’s AI5 design and future efforts including “AI6+, Dojo.”
4. Optimus. Tesla is targeting February or March 2026 for the Gen 3 unveil, an area becoming “an increasingly important part of the Tesla story.”
5. The ‘Muskonomy.’ Morgan Stanley says convergence across Elon Musk’s ventures “has come much more into focus,” and will be another topic to watch.
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