Indian benchmark indices are likely to open lower on Tuesday, the firs trading session of financial year 2025-26, after an extended weekend as the Dalal Street traders braced for more volatility ahead of Trump Tariffs. Global stocks prepared for another turbulent session on Tuesday as uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s impending tariff rollout continued to rattle markets.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 184.65 points or 0.78 per cent down, at 23,453, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Global markets remain on edge this truncated week ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariff implementation on April 2, even as the Asian peers were trading in green in the early trade.
BSE Sensex dropped 191.51 points, or 0.25 per cent to settle at 77,414.92 on Friday, while NSE Nifty50 index fell 72.60 points, or 0.31 per cent to end at 23,519.35 as of FY25 end. Nifty midcap 100 index was down 0.32 per cent, while Nifty smallcap 100 index declined 0.15 per cent for the day.
Overall, Indian indices, including the broader markets, ended the March on a positive note, after five consecutive monthly declines from October 2024 to February 2025. Sensex rose 5.8 per cent in March, NSE’s Nifty50 gained 6.3 per cent during the month. Nifty Midcap 100 index added nearly 8 per cent, while Nifty smallcap 100 index surged 9.5 per cent during the period.
The final week of the current financial year opened on a strong note but ended flat as investor sentiment weakened following the announcement of tariffs on automobiles. Despite steady inflows from institutional investors, the market struggled to sustain its momentum, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.
Key economic indicators to watch include US Job opening data and India’s PMI, both of which will provide insights into economic momentum in their respective regions. Meanwhile, investor focus is shifting toward quarterly earnings reports, which are anticipated to provide a clearer picture of earnings recovery, he added.
Rebound in March was majorly driven by improving domestic optimism and return of foreign flows with bargain hunting at lower levels as valuations aligned with historic averages. There are early signs of growth revival with rising odds for rate cuts from RBI, coupled with rising expectations that the worst is behind. Markets are hoping for gradual improvement in earnings in FY26.
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,352.82 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 7,646.49 crore. Net-net, FPIs sold equities worth Rs 3,973 crore in March 2025.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted on Monday their worst quarterly performances since 2022, as uncertainty around the Trump administration’s economic agenda roiled US equity markets in the first quarter of 2025. For the quarter, the S&P 500 slumped 4.6 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 10.5 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was not immune to the unease, slipping 1.3 per cent in the opening three months.
Oil prices dipped slightly on Tuesday as worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth outweighed concerns about a hit to supply from threats by US President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and bomb Iran.
On the other hand, the US dollar was steady on Tuesday after a bruising quarter as investors braced for reciprocal tariffs from US President Donald Trump this week, while the Australian dollar hovered near a four-week low ahead of the central bank’s policy decision. Investor focus has been firmly on the new round of reciprocal levies.
FY26 will be a year of asset allocation where instead of a broad market rally, there will be pockets of opportunities for wealth creation. Investors should focus on picking assets that reflect their risk appetites, said Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder, Dezerv.
“While the returns from the equity markets have been between 20-25 per cent in the past year across certain categories, investors are advised to rationalise expectations from the equity markets to about 13-15 per cent. Amidst market volatility, investors should stay disciplined,” he suggested.
Nifty levels to watch
Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small candle with a long upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of doji type candle patterns. This market action suggests more consolidation for the short term, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “The near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact and the downward correction from the highs has not damaged the underlying uptrend so far,” he said.
Nifty formed a doji candle on the weekly chart and closed below the 23,600 level. Immediate support is seen near 23,000 and 22,800, while resistance levels are at 24,100 and 24,800, said Choice Broking. “Additionally, Stochastic RSI has shown a positive crossover, and the price is trading above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, reinforcing a bullish outlook,” it said.
Nifty Bank levels to watch
For the Nifty Bank, the 200-day SMA at 51000 would be a critical support zone. If the index remains above this level, it could maintain positive momentum up to 52200-52500, said Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities. “However, a close below the 200-day SMA or 51000 could alter the sentiment. If this occurs, the likelihood of hitting 50500-50400 would increase.”
The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 52,000–52,500 range. If the index moves higher, stocks such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank from the private banking sector are expected to support the uptrend, said Choice Broking. “Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBI and Canara Bank are anticipated to show strength,” it said.
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.