US stock futures tilted lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a pivotal inflation reading and for JPMorgan (JPM) results to kick off the fourth quarter earnings season.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) nudged 0.1% lower, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) hovered below the flat line. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed.
On Monday, Wall Street stocks eked out fresh record closes as investors largely shrugged off concerns about Federal Reserve autonomy sparked by a Justice Department criminal probe into its Chair Jerome Powell.
Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the latest reading on US consumer inflation, a key input into the Fed’s rate-setting decisions. The December consumer price index is expected to offer the clearest picture of trends in months after the record government shutdown disrupted data reports.
The data takes on added importance after the December jobs report pointed to a cooling labor market. Traders see a 95% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in January, and are pricing in June for the first of two quarter-point cuts in 2026, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
The CPI report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show inflation pressures remained steady last month, with an annual headline rate of 2.7% and a monthly rate of 0.3%.
The watch is also on for JPMorgan Chase to lead out this week’s rush of big bank results before the bell on Tuesday, firing the starting gun on earnings season. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) are set to post their fourth quarter reports in the following days.
The dust is settling after Monday’s escalation in the White House-Fed face-off. Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May, characterized the probe as political pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for aggressive rate cuts. Markets have largely dismissed those efforts, noting the Fed already lowered interest rates three times in late 2025 to support economic growth.
On another front, Trump said late Monday that countries that continue to do business with Iran will face a 25% US tariff. The vow adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to a market already grappling with moves on Venezuela and Greenland, and promises to feed into the tariff pressures on prices.
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