The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement for Social Security benefits could be delayed if the government shutdown continues.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) bases its annual COLA on third-quarter inflation data to help benefits keep pace with rising costs.
But this year’s COLA announcement, scheduled for October 15, could be delayed due to the government shutdown furloughing Bureau of Labor Statistics employees and postponing the release of key inflation data.
Newsweek has contacted the SSA for clarification via email outside of regular working hours.
Why It Matters
More than 70 million Americans rely on Social Security payments as a source of income, and the annual COLA determines how much more they’ll receive in 2026 to keep up with rising living costs. A delay in the inflation report means retirees and disabled beneficiaries could be left waiting to learn how their 2026 payments will change—and could find it harder to plan for expenses like rent, groceries, and medical bills.
The timing also highlights how a prolonged government shutdown can ripple through critical programs that directly affect household budgets nationwide.
What To Know
The SSA determines the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation based on the spending patterns of working-age urban households rather than retirees.
Since 1975, the SSA has used CPI-W data from the third quarter (July through September) each year to adjust benefits, helping them keep pace with rising costs for essentials like housing, food, and health care. The COLA is calculated by comparing the average CPI-W for that quarter with the same period the previous year; if the index shows an increase, the percentage difference—rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent—becomes the new COLA.
The COLA is due to be announced on October 15, the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release September’s inflation report. However, with most BLS employees furloughed during the government shutdown, key economic data—including the inflation update—may be delayed.
The U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce said at the end of September, prior to the shutdown beginning on October 1, their statistical agencies will suspend the release of key economic reports—including September’s employment figures, construction spending data, and potentially August’s international trade numbers.
“Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar,” the agency said in a statement.
How Much Will The COLA Be?
The most recent projection from The Senior Citizen’s League puts the COLA at 2.7 percent.
“Seniors across America are holding their breath,” said Shannon Benton, TSCL’s executive director, in a September statement. “Our research shows that about 39 percent of seniors depend on their benefits for all their income, so the COLA announcement has a direct effect on their quality of life.”
Who Receives the COLA Boost
The annual COLA applies across all programs administered by the SSA, including:
- Retirement benefits, including spousal benefits based on a partner’s earnings
- Survivor benefits
- Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
- Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI)
The COLA increase will be reflected in monthly payments beginning in January 2026.