A critical Social Security announcement is expected around October 15, and retirees who rely on monthly benefits should be paying close attention.
Why October 15 matters for Social Security
Each year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces its Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for the following year based on third-quarter inflation data. That update typically arrives in mid-October, and in 2025, the key date is likely October 15.
This update directly impacts the monthly benefit amounts received by over 70 million Americans starting January 2026.
What is the COLA and why it matters
The Social Security Administration uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to calculate COLAs, which help Social Security benefits keep up with inflation. If inflation increases, so does the COLA. If inflation is flat or decreases, the COLA may be minimal—or non-existent.
Current outlook for 2026’s COLA:
- Projected COLA: ~2.5%
- Reason for estimate: Mild year-over-year inflation growth
- Next official update: Mid-October when September CPI-W data is finalized
This adjustment is vital for many retirees. For the average Social Security recipient, benefits replace about 40% of pre-retirement income. Any increase—even modest—can make a meaningful difference in covering rising housing, medical, and food costs.
Why retirees should prepare ahead of the deadline
For retirees living primarily on Social Security, budget planning hinges on knowing the upcoming COLA.
Here’s what to do before October 15:
- Monitor CPI-W trends: Follow monthly inflation reports to estimate what’s coming.
- Review your benefits letter: The SSA sends out official COLA updates via mail and your My Social Security account.
- Adjust your budget: Knowing the new benefit amount early helps you prepare for 2026’s rising costs.
- Avoid scams: SSA does not call or email you for banking updates—COLA changes are automatic.
Will the 2026 COLA be enough?
Inflation has cooled in recent quarters, but it remains above pre-pandemic norms. While that helps keep COLA increases steady, it also means many retirees are still battling elevated living expenses. A lower-than-expected COLA could leave some seniors falling behind.
What happens next?
The official announcement is expected on or around October 15. Retirees should watch for updates directly from the SSA and reputable news sources. Any changes to the forecast could come quickly if inflation spikes between now and September.