Spaghetti models—computer models that illustrate potential storm paths—have suggested that Invest 91L could track westward toward the Caribbean in the coming week.
Why It Matters
If the disturbance were to strengthen into a named storm, it would become the seventh named system of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
A National Hurricane Center graphic highlights the disturbance in red.
National Hurricane Center
What To Know
In an update on Friday morning, the NHC said Invest 91L—a term used by forecasters to mark an area that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development—was located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
“Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic,” it said.
Should it strengthen further into a tropical storm, it would take the name Gabrielle.
The projected path of the disturbance appeared to shift slightly to the south in successive NHC updates. The system is expected by the NHC to be near the Lesser Antilles by mid to late next week, and the agency reported a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation through seven days and 60 percent through 48 hours.
TROPICAL UPDATE: Odds continue to increase, now at 90%, that we will have a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm #Gabrielle into the weekend. Here are my thoughts as of Thursday evening:
1. We now have Invest 91L…or area we are investigating. With that, we will get more… pic.twitter.com/9kJ0KdIDKn
— Matt Devitt (@MattDevittWX) September 4, 2025
The NHC defines a cyclone as “a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation.”
They are categorized by wind speed: According to the agency, tropical depressions have maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less, tropical storms range from 39 to 73 mph, and hurricanes reach 74 mph or higher.
Meanwhile in the Pacific, meteorologists were tracking Hurricane Kiko and Tropical Storm Lorena.
Kiko is forecast to approach Hawaii next week, potentially bringing gusty winds and downpours to the islands.
Lorena—once a hurricane—has weakened to tropical storm strength as of Friday, with the NHC cautioning that heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to affect Baja California Sur and Sonora in Mexico through the day.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Matt Devitt wrote on X on Thursday: “Odds continue to increase, now at 90 percent, that we will have a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm Gabrielle into the weekend.”
He added: “After the Caribbean, everyone wants to know where it’s going to go, but the answer is there isn’t one yet. Too premature to say this will be a ‘fish’ storm out to sea or if it will impact the United States. Hypothetically, if it did, it wouldn’t be for another two weeks. We have a LONG time to watch this one.”
What Happens Next
Agencies such as the NHC issue regular forecast updates. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.