The U.S. election next month will be a clash of visions that reverberates through the global economy for years to come.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in some cases have skirted how they will handle pivotal issues for major industries such as technology. Crucially, that includes how each candidate would proceed on antitrust efforts targeting the tech giants in the wake of the Biden administration’s stepped-up enforcement.
Still, there are clear business consequences to the presidential and congressional elections. Here are five of the industries with the most at stake on Election Day:
Big banks
The eight largest U.S. banks face impending requirements to hold more capital to better protect their solvency against a financial shock. That means less money to pass on to shareholders through stock buybacks or dividends. Banks also argue the new rule will curtail lending to consumers and businesses.
The presidential election will likely determine how soon the requirements kick in and how much additional capital they need.
If Harris prevails, U.S. regulators will likely move forward with a provision of Basel III, an international regulatory accord reached in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Large institutions like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan would face a 9% increase in capital requirements under a plan the Federal Reserve previewed last month. In a Democratic administration, Bloomberg Intelligence sees a 60% chance the requirement will finalized by the third quarter of 2025.
But if Trump wins, the rule-making effort would be put off and ultimately softened significantly, said Isaac Boltansky, managing director at BTIG. Trump also would lean toward less regulation of the financial sector across a range of other areas, he said.
Higher capital requirements generally reduce bank profits, though it’s difficult to estimate the bottom-line impact until all details are finalized, Boltansky added.
Health care
Insurers such as Centene and UnitedHealth face a projected $25 billion revenue drop in 2026 if enhanced Obamacare subsidies aren’t extended when they expire at the end of next year, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
Harris and congressional Democrats strongly support extending the subsidies. It would not be a priority for Trump and Republicans, who have vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, said Larry Levitt, an executive vice president at KFF, a nonprofit health policy research group. Losing the subsidies would be “money out of the pockets of insurers and hospitals,” he said.
The subsidies help millions of Americans pay for health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that Obamacare enrollment could drop by 3.8 million people in one year if the enhanced subsidies aren’t extended.
Yet greater Republican influence would likely reduce pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to negotiate down prices Medicare pays for prescription drugs, Levitt said.
Electric vehicles
Electric-vehicle makers including Tesla and Rivian and established carmakers like General Motors that have made big investments in the technology have a lot riding on the presidential contest.
Tax incentives for consumer EV purchases and auto emissions standards encouraging production of more low-pollution vehicles are both at risk.
A Harris win means federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles probably stand, while under Trump they could be scrapped or scaled back through more stringent “Buy American” restrictions, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Trump has made his goal clear: he promises to end Biden policies favoring EVs “on day one.”
Trump has softened his rhetoric about EVs somewhat since winning the endorsement of Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Yet he still rails on the campaign trail against Biden policies he falsely calls an “EV mandate.”
It would take Republican majorities in the House and Senate to scrap clean-energy industrial subsidies or consumer incentives, said Sarah Bianchi, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI. The greatest risk is that Trump would use executive branch authority to limit them through regulatory changes, she said.
Retail
Retailers would be squeezed by sharp tariff increases on consumer products if Trump wins. The tariffs threaten to hit sales volume and profit margin, with the greatest effect on goods made in China, Bloomberg Intelligence said in a note.
Trump has promised a 10% to 20% duty on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products, and a trade war cycle of retaliation and response could raise tariffs higher. Retail is uniquely exposed because the tariffs would involve a broad swath of goods, said Henrietta Treyz, managing partner of investment adviser Veda Partners.
Ninety-seven percent of clothing sold in the U.S. is imported, as is 98% of shoes and other footwear, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association. More than 90% of consumer electronics sold in the country are imported, according to the Consumer Technology Association.
China is the dominant source, accounting for more than a third of imported clothing, more than half of imported footwear, 79% of laptops, 78% of smartphones and 87% of video game consoles, according to the industry trade groups.
Harris isn’t likely to increase tariffs in whole tranches the way Trump is planning and would instead focus on specific sectors and product lines and export controls, Treyz said.
Tariffs are paid by importers but the higher costs are mostly passed along to U.S. retailers and consumers.
Energy
Oil, gas and coal producers stand to gain from a Trump victory in myriad ways and could do even better if Republicans also win control of Congress. Clean-energy producers would benefit under Harris and Democrats, with offshore wind under particular threat if Trump is elected.
Trump has promised to reverse a Biden administration pause on new licenses needed to widely export liquefied natural gas. More than a dozen projects costing billions of dollars, including Venture Global LNG Inc.’s upcoming CP2 project in Louisiana, are waiting for permits. More export capacity would boost prices and sales volume for U.S. natural gas producers, the Energy Information Administration forecasts.
Likewise, Trump says he would “terminate” Biden regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants, extending the life of more fossil fuel-burning plants. Biden’s measures to force oil and gas companies to spend more to limit climate-warming methane emissions are also vulnerable, and Trump would look to reduce overall regulatory burdens on energy companies, lowering their costs.
Trump is unlikely, however, to convince American oil producers to “drill, baby, drill” and significantly escalate production. U.S. oil output is already at a record high, and investors would resist entreaties to spend money to pump more at the expense of dividends and stock buybacks.
While the Biden administration has rushed to get funding from his signature climate law out the door, Trump is likely to try to curtail the reach of the law’s subsidies and tax credits by rewriting regulatory rules, said Kevin Book, managing director of the Washington consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners LLC.
The former president has been especially hostile to offshore wind power. Proposed projects risk having needed approvals denied, and even already-approved projects could face jeopardy.
(With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.