Despite the morning pullback, rising bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut support a medium-term outlook for US stock futures.
Below, I’ll outline the key market drivers, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.
US Administration Warns of Slower Job Growth
Overnight, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett reportedly warned that US labor market data could be weaker in the near-term, testing sentiment ahead of this week’s delayed US jobs report. While Hassett attributed the likelihood of softer data to increased productivity and immigration policy, last week’s reaction to US labor market data underscored market sensitivity to jobs data.
Hassett’s view would align with the US administration’s positive economic outlook. Nevertheless, a weaker labor market may curb consumer spending and cool economic momentum, given that private consumption accounts for around 65% of US GDP.
Notably, last week’s JOLTs job openings indicated weaker labor demand. The drop in job openings challenged views that immigration policies could create labor market shortages, which typically lifts wages. Weaker labor demand could dampen wage growth, slow consumer spending, and dampen demand-driven inflation. These scenarios would indicate a more dovish Fed policy stance, affirming the bullish medium-term outlook for US stock futures.
US Retail Sales and Earnings in Focus
US futures posted modest losses during the Asian session on February 10. The Dow Jones E-mini slipped 5 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini declined 57 points and 7 points, respectively.