NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to draw attention from investors, with the stock recently closing at $188.12. Short term returns are mixed, with a 1 day decline, flat year to date, and modest gains over the past month.
See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.
Recent share price moves for NVIDIA have been relatively muted over shorter periods, while the 1 year and multi year total shareholder returns remain very strong. This suggests momentum has cooled compared with previous years, but long term holders have still seen substantial gains.
If NVIDIA’s recent share price pause has you thinking about where else growth stories might emerge, it could be a good time to look at high growth tech and AI stocks.
So with NVIDIA’s strong multi year returns, solid recent revenue and net income growth of around 26%, and a share price sitting below analyst price targets, is this a fresh opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
According to RobertoAllende, the narrative fair value of US$345.07 sits well above NVIDIA’s last close of US$188.12, framing a sizeable valuation gap.
NVIDIA’s latest quarterly earnings report, released this week, showcases a company that has successfully navigated one of the most challenging questions in modern tech investing: How do you justify a multi-trillion dollar valuation in an era of AI hype? The answer, it turns out, lies in execution. Record Performance Driven by Blackwell NVIDIA reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.0 billion, marking a 62% increase year-over-year and a 22% sequential gain from the previous quarter. The company’s Data Center segment, which now represents the overwhelming majority of revenue, reached $51.2 billion, up 66% from a year ago.
Curious how this narrative reaches a much higher fair value than today’s price? It leans on huge data center revenue, chunky margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes strong profitability ahead. The full narrative spells out how those ingredients fit together.
Result: Fair Value of $345.07 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this narrative can still break if hyperscalers slow AI infrastructure spending, or if rivals and custom chips start to squeeze NVIDIA’s pricing power and margins.
Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.
That user narrative points to a fair value of US$345.07, which lines up with very strong growth assumptions. Our SWS DCF model takes a different view, with a fair value estimate of US$161.14, which would make NVIDIA look overvalued at the current US$188.12. So which story feels more realistic to you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
If you are not fully on board with these views or just prefer to run the numbers yourself, you can build a custom take in minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your NVIDIA research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If you are serious about sharpening your watchlist, do not stop at one stock. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover more focused opportunities.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NVDA.
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