Nguyen highlights the chart above to show that valuations in the UK market (represented by the bottom, lightest line) are still depressed relative to the US and other European markets, making it an attractive buy ahead of an eventual rebound, Nguyen said.
She identified a couple of catalysts that could drive an upward move in UK stocks.
One is that European governments are starting to spend more, especially on defense. This will likely also be the case in the UK, but even if it’s not, the higher spending levels in continental Europe should benefit the UK, which is its biggest trading partner, Nguyen said.
Second, a potential shift in pension fund requirements in the UK will shift inflows into the country’s stocks, she said. Right now, many UK pension fund providers say they’re voluntarily aiming to have 5% or more of their assets in domestic assets by 2030. The UK government has said they have the authority to mandate a minimum allocation if it is not satisfied with the voluntary pledges.
“Now what they’re saying is, ‘Since we need to rejuvenate our economy, then what we need is more investment,'” Nguyen said. “That increase in demand for UK stocks, or at least the halting of selling UK stocks by these very large pensions, could also be important.”