This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) faces growing headwinds as competition intensifies and delivery momentum softens, an analyst argues, forecasting further downside for the auto maker into 2026.
Tesla’s stock more than doubled from its 52-week low, yet says that recent strength masks structural problems. In Europe, registrations fell sharply in November, Germany, France and several Nordic markets showed steep year-on-year declines, while battery-electric sales overall rose, suggesting Tesla’s weakness appears company-specific.
China presents an even tougher test. The analyst highlights new entrants that priced and launched compelling rivals fast. Xiaomi’s YU7, a direct Model Y challenger, reached meaningful sales quickly, and the analyst expects Chinese brands to expand abroad and pressure Tesla’s global volumes.
Autonomy and robotics remain pivotal to the bear thesis. The author doubts Tesla will meet recent robotaxi rollout targets and says Alphabet (GOOG), via Waymo, advances driverless services more steadily. The Optimus humanoid program also shows little production progress, the piece adds.
On deliveries, the analyst forecasts a weak Q4 2025 print, below 415,000 units, and projects full-year 2026 volume under 1.5 million vehicles. Consensus sits higher, near 450,000 for Q4, leaving room for downside surprises and near-term stock pressure, the write-up warns.
Financially, the note outlines falling trailing net income and rising non-cash charges such as stock-based compensation, and offers a bearish valuation exercise that yields a far lower intrinsic value than the market currently implies. Upside risks include outsized Fed easing or a sudden acceleration in Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress.
Based on the one year price targets offered by 42 analysts, the average target price for Tesla Inc is $383.26 with a high estimate of $600.00 and a low estimate of $19.05. The average target implies a downside of -14.78% from the current price of $449.72.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Tesla Inc in one year is $274.12, suggesting a downside of -39.05% from the current price of $449.72. gf value is gurufocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. it is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. For deeper insights, visit the forecast page.