With 2026 dawning tomorrow, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares have pulled back from their all-time high of just under $499 per share, marking a 12.5% gain for the year. Carried higher by the excitement surrounding its progress in autonomous driving tests, the electric vehicle (EV) maker faces renewed concerns about sales. Tesla posted to its investor relations site a compilation of analyst estimates for fourth-quarter deliveries, and the outlook is more dour than previous estimates, as they forecast a 15% decline.
Although the EV maker saw its stock surge in recent months, driven by milestones in robotaxi development and optimism around future growth in AI and autonomy, it remains anyone’s guess where Tesla’s stock will end up at the end of any particular day, let alone next year.
However, prediction markets offer a peak into trader sentiment on which way they expect the stock to go. By betting on different outcomes, we get a window on the wisdom of crowds concerning Tesla stock.
Tesla’s Wild Ride in 2025
Tesla entered 2025 facing challenges, including softer EV demand, competition, and the prospect of newly elected President Trump eliminating EV industry subsidies. That actually came to pass, along with the expiration of tax credits on EV purchases, leading to falling sales.
U.S. deliveries in the October to December quarter are projected at around 126,000 vehicles, down over 22% year-over -year, as all the sales that could be pulled forward to beat the credit’s sunsetting have been.
We may soon see Tesla’s performance judged just as much on the other parts of its business that have been overshadowed by its automobiles, such as artificial intelligence (AI), energy storage and infrastructure solar, and robotics. The stock’s gains this year are as much about investor sentiment this year shifting to these segments as they are about the EV business.
What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla heading into 2026. Consensus 12-month price targets average around $399 per share, implying the stock is overvalued by 12% after its run higher. Price targets, though, range widely, from lows near $120 to highs of $600 per share, but recent updates show some analysts remain bullish.
Piper Sandler, for instance, reiterated its outperform rating and $500 per share target, as did Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who has the $600 target set. Although Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from overweight to equal weight, it raised its price target from $415 per share to $425. The consensus outlook, however, is that Tesla stock is a hold.
Analysts cite factors like EV market headwinds but highlight upside potential from autonomous vehicles. Morgan Stanley views 2026 as key for robotaxi commercialization, while some note the carmaker’s high valuations in a period of underwhelming earnings performance. Tesla has missed analyst sales estimates for the last four quarters.
Prediction Market Bets Big on Upside
Yet traders are more upbeat. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market offering insight into crowd-sourced expectations for Tesla’s 2025 year-end closing price.
Using cryptocurrency to bet on real-world outcomes — from elections to stock prices — users bid yes/no shares that trade like options. Payouts come from a shared pool, making it a crowd-sourced gauge of probabilities. The contract “What will Tesla (TSLA) close at in 2025?” still shows surprising bullishness, even at this late date, with the highest probability at $450-$475, with 64% odds.
This carries the momentum over into 2026 as well, with the contract “What will Tesla (TSLA) hit in January 2026?” carrying a 97% probability for $465, indicating trader confidence despite the expected deliveries slowdown by the EV maker.
Why 2026 Could Be Pivotal for Tesla
Heading into 2026, Tesla faces a mix of risks and opportunities. EV sales have faced pressure, but the company is advancing toward commercial robotaxi deployment and humanoid robots.
Analysts like Ives at Wedbush describe 2026 as a “monster year” if AI and autonomy milestones are met, while progress in unsupervised Full Self-Driving and Cybercab production could drive reaccelerated growth.
Conversely, if delivery growth lags or competition further intensifies, valuations could face serious pressure. Tesla’s current market cap exceeds $1.5 trillion, pricing in substantial future success. As 2025 wraps up, Tesla stock reflects high expectations for a transformation beyond traditional auto sales, and that may be where the real growth lies.