Bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended losses on Friday as the world’s largest cryptocurrency sank more than 24% from its all-time high north of $126,000 in October.
On Friday, the token slipped beneath $95,000 at the lows of the session, alongside a stock market rout driven by uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. The cryptocurrency was trading above $96,000 midday.
The steady decline came as Bloomberg data showed outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit their second-highest daily level on Thursday.
The token has struggled to recover since last month’s sharp sell-off, which was triggered by leveraged liquidations and selling from large long-term holders.
Data tracked by 10X Research shows “there is currently no meaningful marginal buyer stepping in.”
“This aligns perfectly with multiple on-chain indicators we’ve been tracking, which confirm that Bitcoin is in a bear market regime,” 10X Research said in a note to clients on Friday morning.
The firm warns if bitcoin falls below $93,000, it could drop even further in the near term.
Without an interest rate cut in December and more dovish moves from the Fed in the months ahead, 10X Research doesn’t see a reason to rally in the near-term.
Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments
“We believe there is now a high likelihood the Fed will remain on hold. If that happens, it effectively removes the probability of a classic Bitcoin Christmas rally,” the note said.
Even Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell has turned more cautious on the crypto market, telling investors that the “momentum or lack thereof for Bitcoin right now is an issue.”
“I think we also are in a scenario where there’s just an absence of catalysts,” he said in a video sent to clients on Thursday.
The strategist points out the government shutdown lasted longer than investors expected, and a liquidity boost from renewed spending will take time to seep into the economy.
The strategist said a broader risk-off event could reset valuations and bring buyers back in.
“I think that a revisit to the low $90K range for BTC might be enough to do the trick here,” Farrell said.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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