The Leeward Islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, should monitor the progress of a weather system moving across the Atlantic, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given the disturbance — designated Invest 95L — an 80 percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 90 percent chance within seven days.
According to the NHC’s 2:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 a.m. AST) Tropical Weather Outlook, Invest 95L is located about 1,500 miles east of the Windward Islands and is becoming better organized. Forecasters say environmental conditions are favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next day or two. The system is moving west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic and is expected to approach or pass near the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in San Juan echoed that guidance early Tuesday morning, noting that moisture from Invest 95L could begin influencing Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands toward the end of the week. The agency said the disturbance is likely to strengthen soon, tracking near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands as it does so.
Both the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) forecast models show the system on a west-northwest path through the central Atlantic, with most model members keeping it north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico by Friday. However, forecasters caution that uncertainty remains regarding rainfall totals, the strength of the system, and its exact track as it nears the Caribbean.
Independent tracking tools such as Zoom Earth and Google’s storm tracker show similar scenarios, placing Invest 95L north of the Leeward Islands by Friday and projecting intensification into at least a tropical depression. At this time, no coastal watches or warnings are in effect, but residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Lesser Antilles are advised to remain alert for updates and prepare for the possibility of heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas later this week should the system strengthen or track closer to the islands.
Tropical Wave Brings Rain and Heat Before Invest 95L Arrives
Ahead of Invest 95L’s approach, a tropical wave and upper-level low are affecting Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, producing showers, thunderstorms, and hot, humid conditions.
The NWS San Juan reports that precipitable water values between 1.9 and 2.3 inches have already triggered early morning showers along the windward sides of the islands. Winds are expected to shift from northeasterly to southeasterly later this morning, creating conditions favorable for afternoon thunderstorms. Forecasters have warned of a “limited to elevated flood risk” in central and northern Puerto Rico due to convective showers and thunderstorms, with ponding on roadways, frequent lightning, and isolated flash floods possible, particularly in the San Juan metro area and along the north-central coast.
Heat remains a major concern across both Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The NWS notes that heat impacts will increase through midweek, with the most dangerous conditions expected in urban and coastal areas. Residents are advised to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities, and follow any heat advisories issued later today.
Local Forecasts for the U.S. Virgin Islands
On St. Thomas and St. John, the NWS predicts mostly cloudy skies with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the morning hours. Daytime highs should reach around 93°F, with southeast winds of 10–15 mph. The chance of rain is 70 percent. Tonight, skies will remain variably cloudy with scattered showers and a 50 percent chance of rain, and lows near 83°F.
Across Puerto Rico, coastal and eastern areas will experience passing showers this morning, while the interior and northwestern parts of the island can expect numerous afternoon thunderstorms due to sea breeze convergence. Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with muggy conditions continuing.
Marine and Costal Conditions
A lingering northeasterly swell that generated high surf over the weekend is gradually subsiding. The NWS marine forecast reports that a small craft advisory remains in effect early Tuesday for Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with east winds of 10–15 knots (diminishing later in the day) and seas of 5–6 feet. By Wednesday, seas should lower to 4–5 feet, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist. Mariners are advised to remain cautious, particularly near thunderstorms, where gusty winds and higher seas are possible.
Looking Ahead: Moisture Expected to Increase by Late Week
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Wednesday: Brief drier period with isolated thunderstorms over northwestern Puerto Rico.
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Thursday: Increasing moisture ahead of Invest 95L, bringing more widespread showers and storms.
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Friday through Monday: Moisture from Invest 95L expected to enhance rainfall and thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The heaviest rain bands are possible Friday into Saturday. By Sunday, as the system moves north of the region, winds will shift from the south, maintaining scattered showers.
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Tuesday: Improving weather conditions expected as high pressure builds over the central Atlantic.
Invest 95L in the central Atlantic has a high probability of becoming a tropical depression within the next 24–48 hours. It is expected to continue on a west-northwest track toward the northern Leeward Islands, possibly bringing rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands late this week.
Before its arrival, a tropical wave will continue to bring numerous showers, thunderstorms, and extreme heat to the region today. Residents are urged to stay alert, monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Juan, and take precautions against both localized flooding and heat-related risks.