CHONGQING, CHINA – MARCH 3: In this photo illustration, the Rigetti Computing Inc. logo is displayed on a smartphone screen, with the company’s latest stock market performance and candlestick charts visible in the background, highlighting Rigetti Computing’s real-time financial trends, stock price fluctuations, market volatility, and investment developments within the quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and technology sectors, on March 3, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Rigetti Computing’s stock has soared 2,000% over the past year. Why? It’s been a perfect storm of catalysts. There’s been intense hype around quantum computing and significant capital flowing into the space, which energized investor sentiment. Add the massive AI boom, and many market participants began grouping quantum names like Rigetti into that broader narrative.
With only a handful of publicly traded quantum companies, RGTI became a scarce—and therefore hot—stock to own. On top of that, large institutional investors started building positions, lending further credibility. The result was powerful momentum, with retail investors piling in for fear of missing out and pushing the price even higher.
Here’s the catch: quantum may be the future, but widespread commercial adoption is still years away. Today’s use cases are limited, with most work concentrated on simulating chemistry and physics.
Look at RGTI’s fundamentals:
We agree, quantum stocks hinge on future growth—and we’ve already explored the upside potential. But have you weighed the downside risks? We cover them below. That said, if you want upside with less volatility than a single stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Oracle Stock To $900.
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The Brutal Truth About Market Cycles
Markets don’t trend in one direction forever—as we’ve seen recently—and quantum computing remains years from broad commercialization. There are several risks that could derail Rigetti’s growth narrative.
When sentiment sours, speculative stocks don’t just dip—they get hammered. This isn’t theoretical. In 2022, high inflation spurred rate hikes, and the market fell roughly 25% from its peak. Do you know how much RGTI sank? It was a whopping 96% decline from $9 to $0.40.
The Downside Risk Scenarios
What could trigger the next collapse?
- Market-wide correction: Any turn in risk appetite—whether from inflation fears, geopolitics, or simple profit-taking—hits speculative names first and hardest.
- Competition reality check: Well-capitalized tech leaders like Alphabet, Honeywell, and IBM appear to be making the most progress in quantum—a trend likely to persist given the billions required for R&D. Honeywell recently announced a major milestone for Quantinuum, which raised approximately $600 million in new equity at a $10 billion pre-money valuation, signaling strong confidence in its technology and outlook. How does Rigetti—a company with $10 million in revenue—compete with that?
- Timeline disappointment: Any sign that commercialization is slipping further out could spark heavy selling.
- Dilution concerns: The company has already raised $350 million via share offerings this year. With ongoing cash burn, more dilution is likely.
- Regulatory or technical setbacks: In such an experimental field, a major technical hurdle or regulatory issue could crush sentiment.
The Bottom Line: Are You Prepared?
What’s the realistic downside for RGTI from around $16? If history rhymes, it’s under $2. Are you ready for that?
The 2022 slide wiped out 96% of RGTI’s value. Even a “moderate” 75–80% correction implies $3–4. Given the speculative setup and weak fundamentals, a return to sub-$2 isn’t just possible—it has precedent.
This analysis isn’t bearish for its own sake; it’s about recognizing risk. The probability may be uncertain, but the magnitude is high, and anyone holding RGTI should be prepared for potentially severe drawdowns.
For investors seeking growth exposure without the extreme swings of speculative single names, consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000 indices) to deliver strong returns. Why? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks adapts to strong markets while limiting downside when conditions deteriorate, as shown in the RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Remember: in speculative growth stocks, the same momentum that fuels spectacular gains can drive equally spectacular losses. The question isn’t whether RGTI will be volatile—it’s whether you can withstand what the downside might look like.