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It’s no secret that all eyes are on the incoming Trump administration and what it might mean for every aspect of living, including markets and the economy.
One term likely to take center stage in the coming weeks as Trump builds out his Cabinet is the re-emergence of tariffs and the larger implication for trade and the economy.
“We think and anticipate tariffs will be implemented,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, to Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (see video above or listen below).
Luzzetti said tariffs will negatively impact economic growth.
Tariffs were a significant measure during the first Trump administration.
Trump imposed more than $300 billion in duties on Chinese goods. President Joe Biden largely re-upped Trump’s policy in May — and added new tariffs on certain sectors.
Biden exclusively told Sozzi at the time that the fresh tariffs were about “being fair.”
Looking ahead to the new administration, one proposed move involves a baseline tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports with an eye toward bolstering US manufacturing. Trump has also floated stiffer tariffs on China and new ones on Mexico.
“The jury’s out. We know the short-run effects [from tariffs] so far from 2019, which is that it improved the trade balance with China, but didn’t necessarily improve the trade balance more broadly,” Luzzetti said.
The great economic unknown on tariffs was echoed by top leaders such as Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan at this week’s Yahoo Finance Invest conference.
Watch more from the Invest conference here
Luzzetti ultimately views the data from Trump’s first term as useful when forecasting what could be in the cards this time around.
The tariffs of 2019 focused heavily on China alongside materials like steel and aluminum. Luzzetti notes that what the economy of 2019 experienced “was some uplift in inflation.”
“[The] economy did come under pressure as a result of the tariffs,” he said. “Now, it sparked a trade war. Financial markets took it very negatively.”
China experienced a devaluation in its currency, and in turn, global market sell-offs ensued.
“But you can actually see the manufacturing sector, industrial production, had picked up in 2018 and then it was down negative in 2019,” Luzzetti pointed out. “We have clear evidence that tariffs do work as we expect, which is a negative supply shock for the economy in the short term.”
Since the election results last Tuesday, markets have ignored tariff risk, in some cases rising to record highs on news of Trump’s victory. Closely watched stocks with global financial exposure such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) have also hovered near records.
“We have learned [there] cannot just be tariffs on one particular country, because it is unlikely that [it] reorients that production, say, out of China into the US,” Luzzetti warns. “There’s a lot of other stopping places that you get to before that.”
Grace L. Williams is a writer for Yahoo Finance.
Three times each week, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi fields insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service.
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