Bitcoin (BTC -2.18%) is on a tear. From early September through Nov. 12, the cryptocurrency has rocketed up more than 50% as investors eye a possible bull market in the making.
What is driving the growth? While Bitcoin has been steadily growing from its relative low in September, it absolutely exploded after the election. At one point on the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump said that he wanted to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” While he offered few policy specifics, many investors see him as much more favorable to Bitcoin and other crypto than the incumbent administration.
Just how far can Bitcoin rise? No one can know for sure, but if Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, is correct, the crypto could see another 15,000% gain by 2045, hitting $13 million. Could he be right?
Saylor has bet big on Bitcoin
First, let’s understand Saylor’s financial interest in Bitcoin. When people make claims about price targets, especially claims as bold as this, it’s important to know if they have any vested interest. Saylor certainly does.
MicroStrategy started buying Bitcoin in 2020 as part of a new strategy for the company. It was originally a more traditional enterprise software company, but Saylor believed that adding the crypto to its balance sheet would bring value to its shareholders. Over time, as more Bitcoin was added, accumulating it became the central strategy of the company. Saylor now envisions MicroStrategy as a sort of bank of the future. He wants to hold the largest reserve of Bitcoin in the world and then loan it out to corporations and governments around the globe.
MicroStrategy has financed much of its Bitcoin purchasing with debt. The company’s success is directly linked to the success of Bitcoin. That doesn’t mean Saylor does not believe what he says, but he does have a vested interest in Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise. If Bitcoin falters, MicroStrategy could be in trouble.
Bitcoin is a unique asset
Now, let’s consider why Bitcoin is valuable and why Saylor believes it is the future. Bitcoin is valuable because it combines the best qualities of a range of assets. Like gold, it is deflationary. That is, because only a finite amount of it can ever be mined, there is upward pressure on its value. Over time, all else being equal, its price will appreciate. This is in direct contrast to the dollar, which is actually designed to lose value. Inflation is baked into the system.
This is a big one for Saylor. Bitcoin, again like gold, is not controlled, issued, or regulated by any one authority. This decentralized nature means that its value is set only by supply and demand in the market; central banks and governments cannot manipulate its price. For those worried about future runaway inflation, Bitcoin could be a financial refuge.
Unlike gold, however, Bitcoin is relatively easy to store and exchange. Bitcoin, with value equivalent to all the gold in Fort Knox (about $300 billion), can be held on a thumb drive and sent almost anywhere in the world in a matter of minutes.
Bitcoin is becoming more and more legit
The Bitcoin market was, not too long ago, seen as the Wild West, and most institutional investors wanted no part of it. Those days are behind us now, and institutional capital is flooding the market.
Recent research by EY — one of the four major global accounting firms — found that 60% of institutional investors had at least 1% of their portfolio in digital assets and that the overwhelming majority of respondents planned to increase their holdings moving forward.
Although this trend has been underway for some time, the January Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is helping spur further investment. ETFs like these provide vastly improved liquidity, market stability, and ease of access — all qualities that institutional investors like.
Bitcoin is likely to outperform the market, but Saylor may be a bit too optimistic
It’s not impossible for Bitcoin to reach $13 million by 2045, but I’m not convinced it’s likely. Saylor’s prediction rests largely on institutional investors continuing to allocate an enormous portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin — a whole lot more.
Let’s look at it this way: Equities are the dominant asset class for not just institutional investors, but most people. I would be willing to bet a good chunk of your retirement savings are invested in them, correct? Today, the total value invested in Bitcoin is a little more than 1% of the equities market. If Saylor’s prediction comes true and the equities market continues to gain at its historical average, Bitcoin would be worth 33% of global equities. That would be a fundamental reordering of global financial markets — a paradigm shift.
This seems unlikely to me. The good news? It wouldn’t have to reach such heights for it to still be an incredibly lucrative investment. If Bitcoin were to reach just 5% of global equities, it would still represent an annual return of more than 18%. While it is impossible to put a number on it, I think it is more than likely that Bitcoin will outperform the market.