Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) are trading for 14.2% less than a week ago. Some analysts downgraded the stock, citing high cash burn and the absence of immediate catalysts. The EV maker also recently announced a year-over-year decline in deliveries. The partnership with Volkswagen remains, and the CEO reaffirmed that R2 SUV deliveries are on schedule for the first half of 2026. The share price is still 18.0% higher than six months ago, outperforming the S&P 500 in that time.
Shares of Rivian have been on a rollercoaster this past year. In the latest quarterly results, revenue was up slightly year over year to $1.6 billion. Also, the company posted a narrower-than-expected loss. It noted that the quarter was likely its strongest delivery quarter of the year due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits. Wall Street sentiment on the stock was mixed after the third-quarter report.
The stock is 13.7% higher than a year ago, despite facing challenges from reduced delivery targets and tariff pressures in that time. However, it is countering those headwinds with cost efficiencies, strategic partnerships, and the anticipated R2 launch this year. 24/7 Wall St. conducted some analysis to give investors a better idea of where they can expect the stock to be in a year. Let’s take a look at whether Rivian can overcome its hurdles and return to growth.
Why Invest in Rivian?
Rivian is grappling with significant obstacles. Fourth-quarter deliveries totaled 9,745 vehicles, a 31% decrease year over year. For all of 2025, it delivered 42,247 vehicles, which was an 18% decline compared with a year ago. It cited softening demand due to the expired EV tax credits, as well as economic uncertainties and shifting consumer sentiment, as well as tariffs that are increasing manufacturing costs. So, sales for the current quarter could be weak. Analysts anticipate Rivian will deliver about 66,000 EVs in 2026.
A $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, with $1 billion turned over in June 2025, bolsters Rivian’s $7.2 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. The R2, a $45,000 midsize SUV set for 2026 production in Illinois, targets broader appeal, while plant upgrades—including a planned month-long shutdown in the second half of 2025—aim to boost efficiency by 30%.
Though the EV market is expected to grow through 2030, Rivian projects full-year 2025 revenue of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion, which at the midpoint is down from $4.97 billion in the prior year. The hope is that the new R2 release and fleet sales could boost revenue further.
For its part, Rivian has now seen consecutive quarters of positive gross profit. The EV maker has completed a 1.2 million sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, with plans for another facility in Georgia underway. That second facility could add an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity. As of the end of the third quarter, the company reported $71 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
Rivian as a Company
In its most recent earnings call, Rivian reported $24 million of gross profit, making it the third consecutive quarter the company has seen positive gross profit figures. To address some challenges, the company also maintained its capex guidance of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion.
More recently, the company settled a class-action lawsuit related to its 2021 IPO. It unveiled its custom-designed Rivian Autonomy Processor at its Autonomy and AI Day in December. And it has confirmed that “saleable units” of its R2 midsize SUV are scheduled for early 2026.
There are lingering concerns about how much tariffs will affect Rivian, though. Material costs are expected to be elevated, equating to a few thousand dollars of impact per unit produced in 2025. Additionally, the company—despite seeing positive gross profit—has recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of $602 million, which it attributes to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies.
Although the company manufactures 100% of its vehicles in the United States, tariff uncertainty presents a challenge to near-term growth prospects. However, Rivian is not focusing strictly on individual consumers. Early last year, the company announced a partnership with HelloFresh, which has incorporated 70 Rivian Commercial Vans into its fleet. This marks the first major fleet customer for the EV maker since van sales opened more broadly earlier in 2025.
Rivian as a Stock
Since its 2021 IPO, Rivian’s stock has been volatile, soaring to $180 before crashing by 90%. After hitting a year-to-date low of $10.36 last April, it rebounded in May, supported by first-quarter gross profit and Volkswagen funding. However, the share price is now down 86.5% since going public.
Wall Street sentiment remains cautious, with a consensus Hold rating from 25 analysts. Their average price target has risen to $16.96 per share is about 5% more than the current share price. Individual targets range from $10.00 to $25.00 per share. Wedbush and Baird have the high price target. Wolfe Research downgraded the shares to Underweight due to escalating cash burn, concerns about near-term demand for the R2 platform, and operational headwinds. UBS also downgraded the stock, to Sell, citing a lack of near-term autonomous vehicle milestones.
Institutional investors hold 44.4% of the company’s outstanding shares. Interestingly, the largest holder of Rivian stock is not Vanguard, BlackRock, or another financial services firm. It is Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), which holds more than 158 million shares.
| Estimate | Price Target | Change From Current Price |
| Low | $10.00 | −38.1% |
| Median | $16.96 | 5.0% |
| High | $25.00 | 54.7% |
Rivian’s cost efficiencies, gross profit milestone, and R2 launch position it for growth. Yet, tariff uncertainties and demand softness require investor caution. With 32% projected EV market growth and strategic partnerships, Rivian could achieve modest delivery gains going forward. Its cash buffer and Volkswagen deal offer some stability, but execution risks remain. Rivian should only be considered a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors betting on its long-term EV market role.
24/7 Wall St.’s 2026 year-end price target for Rivian Automotive is bearish at $14.57 per share. That represents 9.8% downside potential from the stock’s current price. That target is based on Rivian facing continued weakness in the EV market due to the elimination of the federal tax credit. However, we see projected growth rates allowing revenue to rise from $4.8 billion in 2025 to $9.6 billion in 2030, alongside net losses improving from $4.69 per share in 2025 to break even by 2030.